Disclaimer: I’m not your financial adviser. Nothing below is financial advice. I’m sharing my personal experience and research so you can learn faster and make your own decisions.
TL;DR (the short version)#
- My thesis: Bitcoin is the people’s money—open, scarce, borderless, and self-custodied—moving us toward a historic separation of money and state.
- Where we’re at: Mainstream access has widened dramatically, and the 2024 halving sharpened Bitcoin’s long-term scarcity while stress-testing the fee market.
- Roadmap: Scaling is happening off-chain (Lightning, sidechains, and new designs). Progress isn’t linear, but the direction of travel is clear.
- Regulation: Rulebooks are maturing. Clarity improves access but also raises compliance bars.
- Risks: Policy fragmentation, UX friction, energy optics, miner incentives, and long-run cryptography upgrades.
- Bottom line: I treat Bitcoin as a multi-decade savings technology. For beginners, a small, rules-based approach and a focus on self-custody education beats chasing headlines.
Why I care (and why I write in the first person)#
I’ve been investing in cryptocurrency since 2017, but my worldview was forged in 2008. I watched investments I believed were “safe” crash to cents on the dollar. That period taught me two uncomfortable truths:
- The system is highly intermediated and political. Monetary policy isn’t neutral; incentives, bailouts, and opaque pipes can determine who sinks and who gets saved.
- You can be right about value and still get crushed by plumbing. Settlement layers matter. Counterparty risk matters. Market structure matters.
When I discovered Bitcoin, the idea of permissionless, self-custodied money with a predictable supply struck me as the antidote to that fragility. To me, Bitcoin’s future is about more than price—it’s about sovereignty, credibility, and making money a neutral protocol like TCP/IP. If the internet turned information into a permissionless network, Bitcoin does the same for value.
That’s why I write this in the first person. I’m sharing the mental models I actually use with my own capital, the mistakes I’ve made, and the checklist I wish I’d had when I was starting out.
Where Bitcoin Stands in 2025 (Context You Actually Need)#
A lot changed between 2017 and today:
- Mainstream rails are now part of the landscape. It’s far easier for everyday investors, advisers, and institutions to get exposure—whether through brokerages, retirement accounts, or compliant exchanges.
- The fourth halving in 2024 cut issuance again, reducing the amount of new bitcoin created each block. That’s not just a “number go down” for supply; it also shines a spotlight on the fee market that must emerge as block subsidies shrink.
- Market participants are more diverse. Beyond the original cypherpunk crowd, we now have corporate treasurers, hedge funds, family offices, and ordinary savers who simply want a scarce asset they control themselves.
- Education has improved. There’s better content, better wallets, smoother user flows, and guardrails that didn’t exist in the early days.
In plain English: the rails are sturdier, the crowd is bigger, and the conversation is more serious. But we’re still early in terms of global adoption and day-to-day usability.
First Principles: Why I Call Bitcoin “The People’s Money”#
Let me define that phrase because it sets the tone for everything else.
1) Fixed supply, credible schedule#
There will only ever be 21 million bitcoin, and the issuance schedule is transparent. No committee can wake up and decide to debase your savings. That predictable scarcity is what gives Bitcoin its monetary gravity.
2) Permissionless access#
Anyone with a cheap smartphone and an internet connection can hold, send, or verify. You don’t need to open an account, ask permission, or pass a subjective screening. That matters for the unbanked, for people in unstable jurisdictions, and frankly for anyone who’s tired of being treated as a product rather than a customer.
3) Self-custody as a right#
With a seed phrase and basic hygiene, you eliminate most counterparty risks that destroyed wealth in 2008 and have reappeared in every cycle since. Holding your own keys isn’t for everyone on day one—but as you learn, it becomes the feature, not the bug.
4) Separation of money and state#
For most of history, rulers controlled the mint. Bitcoin flips that by making money issuance algorithmic and enforcement social/technical rather than political. If you believe that credible rules beat discretionary rulers over long horizons, you’re my audience.
Why it’s “people’s money”: Bitcoin treats everyone the same. There are no VIP windows. The rules are transparent and enforced by a global network that anyone can audit.
Technology Roadmap: Can Bitcoin Scale Its Future?#
Bitcoin’s base layer (L1) prioritizes simplicity and durability. It evolves slowly and carefully. That can be frustrating if you want everything yesterday, but it’s part of the design: ossify the base money, innovate on the edges.
Layer 2 today — Lightning Network#
Lightning batches and net-settles small payments off-chain, giving you instant confirmations and very low fees when channels are well-provisioned. Public “capacity” (how much BTC is locked in public channels) has risen and retraced at different times—normal for a maturing network. What matters more than a single headline metric is user experience: easier channel management, better routing, improved liquidity tools, and wallet UX that hides the complexity.
What Lightning already does well:
- Micro-payments and tipping
- Paywalls and streaming payments
- Point-of-sale with sub-second confirmations
What Lightning still needs:
- More seamless liquidity management for non-experts
- Wider merchant tooling and simpler accounting
- Better cross-border bridges from fiat on-ramps into Lightning wallets
Beyond Lightning — sidechains & emerging designs#
- Sidechains (like Liquid) aim for faster finality, confidential transactions, and asset issuance with different trust assumptions.
- Rollup-style approaches and client improvements are being explored. The idea is to push complexity and throughput off L1 while inheriting L1 security as much as possible.
- Inscriptions and other data uses have shown that there’s diverse demand for block space. You don’t have to like every use case to appreciate the net effect: a fee market that can support miners as subsidies fade.
My take#
I’m conservative on promises and optimistic on direction. The winning pattern looks modular: keep L1 minimal and predictable; push velocity to L2/L3; let markets decide which tools fit which jobs. That’s how the internet scaled: a simple, robust base with many layers of optional complexity on top.
Macro & Regulation: Tailwinds and Tripwires#
The policy environment is the wild card for Bitcoin’s adoption curve.
- Clarity increases participation. When rules are clear, big pools of capital feel safer to allocate. That includes pension funds, insurers, and conservative family offices.
- Clarity increases costs. Licenses, custody standards, audits, and disclosures raise the bar for businesses. That’s good for consumers in the long run but can slow innovation in the short run.
- Jurisdictions will differ. Some countries will lean in with sandboxes and clear tax treatment. Others will restrict or over-regulate and push activity elsewhere. The protocol doesn’t care; liquidity does.
What I watch:
- Harmonisation between major markets;
- Accounting standards for corporates that hold BTC;
- Treatment of self-custody and privacy tools;
- How new stablecoin rules interact with BTC demand (spend vs save).
Environment & Security: The Hard Questions (Answered Simply)#
Energy (and why it isn’t a one-line debate)#
Bitcoin uses energy to anchor its neutrality. The important questions aren’t “how many terawatt-hours?” in isolation but what kind of energy, where, and when.
- Miners chase cheap/stranded energy and can be highly interruptible, which some grids like because miners can absorb excess supply and turn off quickly when the grid is tight.
- Emissions depend on the energy mix in mining regions—not a single global average.
- Over time, as fees replace subsidies, miner margins may compress, pushing miners toward even cheaper and often cleaner sources.
None of this is an excuse for sloppy measurement. It’s a call to use real methodologies and update assumptions as the network changes.
Network security (hash rate vs incentives)#
Raw hash rate matters, but the long-run question is incentives. As the block subsidy declines, transaction fees must pull more weight. We saw flashes of that in 2024 when demand for block space spiked. Over the next decade, I’m watching how sustained and diverse that demand becomes.
Quantum risk (straight talk)#
Bitcoin uses digital signatures that a future cryptographically relevant quantum computer could threaten if we never migrated. The good news: the broader world (browsers, banks, standards bodies) is already standardising post-quantum algorithms. For Bitcoin, there are clear migration paths: link unspent outputs to quantum-safe schemes over time, rotate keys, and update wallets. Translation: this is a managed engineering problem, not an existential surprise.
“Is Bitcoin the Best Crypto?” vs “What’s Better Than Bitcoin?”#
This is where beginners get tripped up. I evaluate assets by job-to-be-done:
- Bitcoin’s job: Be credible money—neutral, scarce, portable, and difficult to confiscate.
- Smart-contract platforms: Optimise for programmability, throughput, composability (DeFi, NFTs, on-chain apps).
- Stablecoins: Optimise for spending and settlement in today’s fiat terms.
So, is Bitcoin the best crypto? If the job is “store value across time in a credibly neutral network,” I believe yes—that’s Bitcoin’s design center. If the job is “build complex, expressive apps,” then Bitcoin is conservative by design and other chains may fit better.
What could be better than Bitcoin? Something that offers stronger monetary credibility (hard to imagine without replicating Bitcoin’s hard-won path-dependence), wider distribution, or superior security without sacrificing decentralisation. Most alternatives trade off one of these pillars. That’s why, for the monetary use case, Bitcoin keeps winning my internal bake-off.
Will Bitcoin Survive? The Scenarios I Model#
I don’t believe in single-track predictions. I think in scenarios so I can manage risk.
Bull (Transformation)#
- Bitcoin becomes a global savings technology—a normal, boring line item in household and corporate portfolios.
- The fee market deepens; miner revenue becomes increasingly fee-driven without jeopardising security.
- L2s absorb day-to-day payments; custody UX becomes “grandma-friendly.”
- More corporates and even sovereigns hold BTC as part of reserves.
- Media narratives shift from “speculative asset” to “neutral monetary protocol.”
Base Case (Monetisation, Slowly)#
- Regulatory clarity increases, but unevenly.
- Access broadens via brokerages, ETFs, compliant exchanges, and better wallets.
- Cycles remain, but macro sensitivity (liquidity, rates) explains more of the variance.
- Miners adapt with more efficient hardware, smarter energy sourcing, and diversified revenue lines.
Bear (Stagnation)#
- Policy fragmentation or heavy-handed restrictions slow adoption in key markets.
- UX never crosses the chasm; self-custody remains niche and intimidating.
- Transaction demand plateaus; the security budget becomes a recurring worry.
- A credible, more decentralised monetary network emerges and actually gains real Lindy (unlikely, but I include it so I don’t get blindsided).
How I invest against these: Small allocations, long horizons, and the humility to accept I’ll never have perfect information.
Price Talk Without the Hype (Not Financial Advice)#
I’ve ridden full cycles now. My approach boils down to:
- Position sizing: Small enough that I can sleep at night and never need to sell at the worst time.
- DCA (dollar-cost averaging): Simple rules beat market timing. If you’re a beginner, the goal is to stay in the game.
- Thesis-based holding: I hold for the monetary thesis, not for every narrative that trends on social media.
- Custody discipline: I treat keys like house deeds—cold storage, backups, passphrases, and a simple, documented inheritance plan.
- Tax awareness: Understand your local rules. “Number go up” is fun until tax season. Build the habit of recording cost bases and transactions early.
If you’re wondering about price targets for 2030 and beyond: they’re entertaining, not actionable. Focus on process, not prediction.
How I’d Get Started Today (If I Were Brand New)#
1) Learn the basics#
- What a seed phrase is (and how to back it up safely—paper, steel, or both).
- Hot vs cold wallets (start hot for tiny amounts; graduate to cold storage for savings).
- Address formats, checksum awareness, and doing test sends before large transfers.
- Why you should never photograph, email, or cloud-store your seed phrase.
2) Choose an on-ramp#
- Brokerage/ETF exposure if you want simplicity inside your existing retirement/tax framework (remember: ETF ≠ self-custody).
- Buy and withdraw from a compliant exchange to your own wallet if sovereignty matters most to you.
- Consider fees, spreads, limits, withdrawal options, and identity verification before you commit.
3) Write a tiny playbook for yourself#
- “I DCA X dollars per week.”
- “I self-custody above $Y.”
- “I won’t sell for Z years unless my thesis breaks.”
- “I will rehearse recovery from seed once, on a spare wallet, so I’m not learning under stress.”
4) Practice, then scale#
Set up a practice wallet with a few dollars to build muscle memory: send, receive, back up, restore. Graduate to larger amounts only when you’re comfortable.
5) Think beyond yourself#
If you’re the “money person” in your family, teach the basics to a partner or trusted person. Document your process. A plan that dies with you isn’t a plan.
2030 Outlook: What Would Prove Me Right—or Wrong#
Prove-me-right metrics#
- Miners earn a higher share of revenue from fees, indicating sustainable security post-subsidies.
- Layer-2 volumes grow steadily; UX gets invisible; merchant tooling becomes off-the-shelf.
- More regulated on-ramps and clear policy in multiple regions; fewer rug-pulls and blow-ups.
- Households & treasuries hold Bitcoin as a normal allocation (via ETFs or keys), and the conversation shifts from speculation to savings.
Prove-me-wrong metrics#
- Transaction demand stagnates; fees can’t support miners without subsidies.
- Scaling solutions stall; UX remains too complex for non-technical users.
- Severe regulatory fragmentation crimps liquidity and innovation.
- A genuinely more decentralised, more secure monetary network appears and wins real adoption.
Either way, these are observable. They let me update beliefs without drama.
FAQs (Beginner-friendly, SEO-ready)#
Will Bitcoin survive long term?#
I think so—if demand for neutral, self-custodied money keeps growing and miners are sustainably compensated by fees as subsidies decline. The 2024 halving period gave us a preview of what a tighter block space market looks like. If fee pressure persists across cycles, I get more confident.
Is Bitcoin the best crypto to hold for 10 years?#
If your goal is saving in the hardest, most neutral digital asset, I believe Bitcoin is the leader. If your goal is to build apps, other chains may be better suited. Different tools, different jobs.
What could be better than Bitcoin?#
A network with superior monetary credibility and security without centralisation trade-offs. That’s a very high bar. Many projects are impressive on features, but the monetary use case prizes credibility over novelty.
What will Bitcoin be worth in 2030?#
No one knows. I focus on thesis durability and position sizing, not targets. If I’m roughly right on the thesis, the exact number matters less than surviving the journey.
Will governments ban Bitcoin?#
Some will restrict access; others will integrate it into regulated rails like brokerages and ETFs. Protocol-level bans are unlikely. Policy risk is real, but it varies by country and tends to soften as more stakeholders participate.
Is Bitcoin bad for the environment?#
Bitcoin uses energy by design. The impact depends on the energy mix where mining happens and on how miners interact with local grids. Over time, economics tend to push miners toward cheaper—and often cleaner—sources, especially when they can earn by stabilising grids or monetising stranded energy.
Can quantum computers break Bitcoin?#
Not today. The threat model is well understood, and the broader tech world has already standardised post-quantum algorithms. Bitcoin can migrate over time (especially for unspent outputs with undisclosed public keys). Think of it as a software upgrade problem on long timelines.
Is it safer to buy a Bitcoin ETF or hold my own keys?#
They’re different risk profiles. ETFs add custody and issuer risk but fit retirement accounts and simplify taxes. Self-custody removes counterparty risk but requires you to do the security work yourself. Many people start with ETF exposure, then learn self-custody for a portion of their stack.
Quick Glossary#
- Halving: Programmed event that halves new BTC issuance roughly every four years (the most recent one was in 2024).
- Fee market: Competition for limited block space via transaction fees—critical for long-run miner revenue as subsidies decline.
- Layer 2 (L2): Protocols built atop Bitcoin for faster/cheaper transactions (e.g., Lightning). Public capacity is one metric, but overall usefulness depends on routing, liquidity, and UX.
- Sidechain: A separate blockchain pegged to Bitcoin with different trade-offs (e.g., faster finality, different privacy features).
- Self-custody: Holding your own keys instead of relying on a custodian.
- Seed phrase: A human-readable backup for your wallet’s private keys; protect it like the deed to your home.
- PQC (Post-Quantum Cryptography): New cryptography designed to resist attacks from future quantum computers.
Final Word (and how my 2008 scars shape my approach)#
Back in 2008, I learned the hard way that who holds the keys matters—literally and figuratively. Since 2017, I’ve treated Bitcoin as a hedge against financial manipulation and counterparty fragility. The future I’m betting on isn’t utopian; it’s practical: a world where anyone, anywhere, can save and settle value on neutral rails.
If you’re new: start small, learn custody, and build a plan you can stick to through big swings. If I’m right about the people’s money thesis, the coming years won’t just be about price charts—they’ll be about widening access to financial sovereignty.
